This is certainly the magic question! Unfortunately there is no clear-cut answer, but Schupan Aluminum can provide some industry opinions.
Metal Center News recently published an Article entitled "Uncertainty Flattens the Forecast". (January 2007 edition)
This was an article that polled its readers, along with top executives from
Metal Service Centers around the world, to gauge their expectations for the
coming year. The following was their findings:
Steel:
- 39% forecasted a price increase at an average rate of 9.1%.
- 38% predicted a price decrease at an average rate of 9.1%
- The remaining 23% forecasted steel prices to stay flat for 2007
Aluminum:
- 38% expect a price increase at an average rate of 10.1%
- 31% forecast a price decrease at an average rate of 8.8%
- The average of the two groups forecasted aluminum prices to increase at a rate of 1.1% for 2007.
Copper:
- 40% expect a price decrease by an average of 14.5%.
- 35% expect no change
- As a whole, 75% of red metal distributors expect red metal prices to remain flat.
As you can see there is quite a wide range of opinions. The participants in this article are in top levels of management within service centers and the manufacturing industry. As a rule, these individuals generally have a good grasp of industry trends. With that being said the title of the article certainly mirrors their responses.